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- $1T Trade Surplus 💰 EV Battery Dominance 🔋 Free Trade Island Opens 🏝️
$1T Trade Surplus 💰 EV Battery Dominance 🔋 Free Trade Island Opens 🏝️
China Insights Weekly for December 15. Unpacking China’s economic and technological advances.
Tomas Kucera & Yereth Jansen
December 15, 2025
In partnership with
Welcome back to China Insights Weekly. Here are some of the key highlights for this week’s edition:
Export momentum shifts east and south, with EU and ASEAN replacing the US as key growth drivers
FDI leaders rank China as the top source of global investment expansion for 2026
CSSC secures a record USD 7.1B shipbuilding order from Cosco, mostly settled in RMB
Chinese waste-to-energy firms accelerate overseas expansion, exporting full plant systems, not just tech
🚀 Headlines
China's trade surplus for 2025 topped USD 1 trillion for the first time, with exports climbing 5.9% YoY in November and imports rising just under 2%. The trade surplus for the first 11 months reached nearly USD 1.08 trillion, surpassing the $992 billion surplus for all of 2024. Shipments to the US dropped almost 29% year on year, while exports from China to the EU jumped 14.8%, and those to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) rose 8.2%, Japan climbed 4.3%, and South Korea increased 1.9%. Exports of integrated circuits surged 34% and of cars 53% from a year earlier. Morgan Stanley predicts that by 2030, China’s market share in global exports will reach 16.5%, up from about 15% currently, fueled by its edge in advanced manufacturing and high-growth sectors such as electric vehicles, robotics, and batteries.
China leads global battery electric vehicle sales with 60% share with BYD and Geely top 3 brands globally (link)
Global EV sales surged 32% YoY in Q3 2025, with battery electric vehicles (BEVs) accounting for two-thirds of total EV sales and rising 32% YoY. BEV penetration hit 18% of global passenger vehicle sales, up from 14% YoY. China led the growth, contributing 60% of global BEV sales, followed by Europe and the US. BYD Auto maintained its global BEV market lead with nearly 0.6 million sales, up 33% YoY, driven by strong overseas sales in Europe, Southeast Asia, and Latin America. Geely Holding Group ranked third with a 10% global BEV share and 51% YoY growth, while Tesla held second place with over 13% share and 7% YoY sales growth. The Tesla Model Y, Galaxy Xingyuan, and Tesla Model 3 were the top-selling EV models globally.
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According to fDi Intelligence’s inaugural year-ahead survey of 101 foreign investment leaders, China is expected to expand its share of global foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2026, with 74 mentions. Chinese companies, including ByteDance, Geely Holding, BYD, JD.com, and Haier, are actively pursuing internationalization strategies to find new markets for their cutting-edge products. The UAE, India, and Saudi Arabia also feature prominently with 40, 31, and 29 mentions, respectively. The survey indicates a decisively southward shift in the global trade center of gravity, with rising hubs like Lagos, São Paulo, Mumbai, and Dubai rivaling traditional Western centers.
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